Solo Mining Chance Calculator
What is your real solo mining chance? Enter your hashrate to calculate the statistical probability and estimated time to find a block solo on Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Zcash, using live network difficulty and fixed protocol block times.
Network Parameters
Calculated statistically as the expected duration to find exactly one block solo at your hardware's live speed.
Solo Solve Probabilities
💡 Did You Know?
A single Powerball ticket hits the jackpot about 1 in 292,201,338 times. At your hashrate, finding a BTC block within a year is 2,353,258x more likely than that ticket. Not bad for a lottery where you keep the machine.
How Your Solo Mining Chance Is Calculated
Solo mining is a Poisson process where each hash you compute is an independent attempt to solve a block by finding a hash value lower than the target set by the network difficulty.
Your solo mining chance of finding a single block is computed as Your Hashrate / Network Hashrate. When projecting these odds over a given timeframe (such as an hour, day, or year), the calculator uses the binomial probability formula: 1 - (1 - P)^N, where N is the total number of blocks solved by the entire network in that time frame.
Should I Solo Mine?
Solo mining is highly attractive because it guarantees that solved block rewards are paid out with 100% sovereignty, direct to your private cold storage wallet via the block's coinbase output, without having to trust pool intermediary hot wallets or pay centralized payout fees.
However, solo mining is extremely high-variance. If you are mining with low-hashrate hardware (like a custom Bitaxe or DIY ESP32 rig), the calculator highlights that the expected time to solve a block may span years. Solo mining is ideal for recreational setups, or miners who accept the lottery-like nature of block solving in exchange for extreme payout sovereignty.
Solo Mining Chance FAQ
What is the chance of solo mining a Bitcoin block?
Your solo mining chance per block equals your hashrate divided by the total network hashrate. A 1 TH/s Bitaxe-class miner against a Bitcoin network measured in hundreds of EH/s has on the order of a one-in-a-billion chance per block, which is why small miners usually look at their odds per year instead.
How is solo mining chance calculated?
The calculator divides your hashrate by the live network hashrate to get your chance per block, then projects it over a timeframe with the binomial formula 1 - (1 - p)^n, where n is the number of blocks the network solves in that period at the protocol's fixed target block time.
Which coin gives the best solo mining chance?
The chain where your hardware represents the largest share of total network hashrate. For SHA-256 rigs, Bitcoin Cash offers a far higher solo mining chance than Bitcoin because its network hashrate is a small fraction of Bitcoin's - the trade-off is a lower USD value per block.
Can a Bitaxe realistically find a block solo?
Yes, and a few do every year, but it is statistically rare. Treat solo mining on a Bitaxe like a lottery: the expected time to a block can span decades or centuries, yet every hash has the same tiny independent chance, and occasionally someone gets lucky.
Does my solo mining chance improve the longer I mine?
No. Block finding is a memoryless Poisson process, so past hashing builds no progress toward the next block. Mining for longer raises your cumulative odds only because more network blocks pass, not because your per-block chance grows.
Disclaimer & Mathematical Warranty
CRITICAL WARNING: Solo mining is an extremely high-risk, high-variance activity. Because block finding is a purely stochastic (probabilistic) process governed by global network difficulty and random distribution, miners operating low-hashrate hardware (like Bitaxe, Nerdaxe, or custom rigs) face a statistically high probability of mining for years, or even forever, without ever solving a block or receiving any payout whatsoever.
This calculator is provided solely for educational, theoretical, and historical estimation purposes. We do not control, influence, or guarantee block submission acceptance, network block production times, global difficulty adjustments, or any mining outcomes. All projections on this page represent mathematical probabilities under static parameters and constitute no warranty of actual block generation or financial return.